Broncos should think twice about trading up for QB as new mock draft suggests

The Denver Broncos must find a franchise quarterback, but they shouldn't sell the farm to land one.

In The Athletic's latest mock draft, Nick Kosmider predicted Denver would trade the 12th overall pick, the 76th pick and a 2025 second-rounder to the Atlanta Falcons and take Michigan's J.J. McCarthy with the eighth pick.

"In the end, [head coach] Sean Payton gets a national champion quarterback he can build around without relinquishing a future first-rounder," wrote Kosmider. "The two picks the Broncos acquired by trading wide receiver Jerry Jeudy [to the Cleveland Browns] earlier this month made climbing for a QB a more digestible move."

Jarrett Stidham failed to prove he's the answer last season, going 1-1 in two starts and completing 60.6 percent of his passes for two touchdowns, one interception and a below-average 31.1 QBR. Backup Ben DiNucci has made one start in his career. 

Bridge QBs, such as Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) and Gardner Minshew II (Las Vegas Raiders), signed elsewhere in free agency.

While the Broncos need another passer, they can't afford to unload more draft capital after they dealt three first-rounders and more for Russell Wilson and Payton in 2022 and 2023. According to Tankathon, Denver has two picks through the draft's first three rounds. 

Plus, first-round trades for a QB have a low hit rate. Per Kosmider, 28 QBs have been acquired via a first-round trade since 1994. Seventeen never won a playoff game, and only nine signed an extension with the team that drafted them.

The Broncos could still take a QB with the 12th overall pick, perhaps 2023 Heisman finalists Bo Nix (Oregon) or Michael Penix Jr. (Washington).

The club faces a taxing rebuild after missing the playoffs for an eighth straight season in 2023, but placing all its stock in a young quarterback isn't the solution.